Evening Update, January 26th.

Tonights Update : Flooding rains for North Queensland, as a strong tropical low pumps huge moisture into the area, and extreme heat in NSW tempered by a cooler change in the South.

Good evening everyone, hope you are doing well, and keeping cool if you are in NSW, where it has been another day of extreme heat.

A cooler change has pushed through Southern parts of the state, and thundery showers are now kicking off across the South, and also back up into the NW of the state.

Flooding rains are now developing in Far North QLD coastal districts, this morning the BOM issued a warning for floods and falls in the order of 250 mm in 6 hours, so a serious situation is unfolding.

This system has moved further South than expected, and so the now see the rainfall expectations also take a turn as well, which is expected with these very complex set ups.

After seeing good agreement yesterday, the GFS has again gone off the rails and taken a lot of the rain East, as it is the only model taking the MJO into Phase 7, and the majority of the tropical moisture with it.

The other models continue to see the tropical low staying over Northern Australia and not moving away very far, and then pushing further West later next weekend towards Central Australia.

So the only thing that is certain tonight is the Central Coast, Central Highlands and parts of the Central West of QLD are now in the frame to see some rainfall, when it looked like the ridge may have kept the rain further North.

Cyclone Riley continues to move WSW, and looks to weaken and die out. Even though it’s bringing moisture in over the next week for some thundery showers, SA, Victoria and NSW will need to see a cyclone come in from this area to give the chance of a significant system.

This one just gone did not line itself up with an upper trough, and the one on Wednesday may also not seen upper trough, and we won’t see major rain through Southern areas unless we see either a strong upper trough, or one of these huge infers of moisture to enter the country and travel across the inland.

The other thing also in the next few days is a cloud band that is coming from the North West, this will produce rain through SA, and may even dive South a little into Northern Victoria and Southern NSW over the weekend and Monday.

Current satellite loop shows the cyclone out West, and tropical low up North in QLD, and a huge mass of moisture and storms across much of the country.

Thunderstorms are firing in NSW late this afternoon along the trough line , and also near the coast up through the North of the state, and also along the Sort coastal areas as well.

This band will thicken tomorrow through SA, and thundery rain will develop through the NW of SA, and head SE into NSW tomorrow and Monday.

The Low in QLD is now moving much further South than expected, that might be a good result for QLD, but a bad result for everyone else.

Massive storms have developed just in the last hour in Far North QLD coastal areas, and flooding rain will continue to develop.

Thundery showers continue to develop on the line of moisture in SA, unfortunately it lacks a trigger so not much with it as it moves through overnight.

 

Thundery showers also through NSW, and moving into Victoria, from the West. There is a big cluster of storms near the South West Slopes, these are moving slowly SE, and should train over the same area nicely tonight.

The line stretches right back up to the NW corner of the state, with Tibooburra seeing 14 mm form storms this afternoon.

 

Huge rain developing for QLD, this should be a big event and likely to be huge totals by the morning, and a very wet week ahead with around 600 – 1000 mm in the next week along the North tropical coastal areas.

Some of this will push inland, and we will see what eventuates in the Gulf Country and a bit further South.

 

Moving along to the UKMET, it sees the rain going through the middle of SA, and then pushes showers into the SE of Australia.

And then another round also coming South from the QLD system mid next week, and plenty of rain into the Northern half of QLD.

 

 

As mentioned earlier, the GFS moved has moved a lot of the QLD rain out to the East. it still brings the rain much further South in tonights run, but not as heavy rain, just thundery rain.

And then it also doesn’t quite have as much rain through SA, it doesn’t pick up the rain over the weekend, or the rain in NSW and Victoria, because it wants to sweep it out to the East.

No other model wants to do this, and no other model takes the MJO East into Phase 7. It is possible that this could be right, because the low hasn’t developed and might not keep the monsoon trough pegged over Australia, however it’s the only one doing this at this point.

Interestingly, the FV3-GFS has the moisture sticking over the Top End, and after Day 10 it looks like this above.

 

 

And here is the rainfall, and just outside the 10 day window it starts developing widespread rain through Southern Australia, in response to tall of the moisture sitting over the country.

 

The Canadian model has not changed a lot either, it’s fairly consistent, seeing the huge moisture plume sitting over QLD and the NT for the majority of the 10 day outlook.

As we run through the loop, you can see the monsoonal moisture gets a bit further South, but still gets swept inland mid next week.

From there it barely moves and continues to feed moisture West, and slowly South. And by the end of next weekend, moisture is very general across all of the country.

 

 

So onto the rainfall outlook, the rain is indeed much deeper into QLD, it’s now starting to get into Central West QLD, and any rainfall that  makes it that far South will be most welcome.

On the other hand, the Canadian is not seeing the rain through SA tomorrow and Monday, and also for Victoria for Wednesday. It has now pushed the rain East and mostly in NSW and Eastern Victoria.

By the end of the run, it has a lot of rain through much of inland QLD, but doesn’t have it going into SA any more.

 

The still version of the Canadian 10 day rainfall outlook is above.

Onto the European model, not much changes in the first 4 days, and thats where it stops, after that the EC wants to change the whole set up.

Because the low doesn’t develop into a cyclone, the monsoon trough may grab the weak low and sweep it out to the East, which is what it has happening late in the run.

That doesn’t happen until next weekend, and until then we still see a lot of heavy moisture through the NT and QLD.

So this is trending towards the GFS which is also taking the monsoon trough to the East, and if it does so, this will repeat what happened a fortnight ago.

There is more moisture left over this time, and a bit more to our North West, which continues to sit over the country generally.

 

 

So because of this, the European has dropped a lot of rainfall off tonight, it had almost 200 mm heading South into SA this morning.

It still has big rain for inland QLD, but does not take it anywhere near as far South, and keeps it all well North. It has also dropped all of the rain virtually in the South, hard to believe it could drop so much rainfall in one run, so I expect it will be different by tomorrow.

Now that the low has not developed into a cyclone, that is also a difference to the last few runs, but not as much as it is showing tonight, because it still has a lot of moisture over the Top End in general.

Even though we got a favourable set up in the Indian Ocean with Cyclone Riley, it is still not enough to bring widespread rain into Southern areas as it has continued to go West.

Because it weakens, it allows the the monsoon trough to push East generally over the next week, to be sitting over the West Pacific by the end of the run.

And it shows with cyclones, you cant look too far ahead, as this will again no doubt change by the morning, and also that you need a lot of luck with their moment to bring rain South.

Tomorrow night will be more interesting, by then the low will have dropped a lot of rain and will be starting to move South West into QLD, so will be interesting to see how big the push will be.

As we can see tonight, thundery showers are becoming widespread, so at the very least this continues generally over the inland for the whole of the outlook period, which the European struggles to see as we know.

So any questions, please post them and I will answer them tonight, enjoy your Australia Day evening, I will see you again here tomorrow night.

 

15 thoughts on “Evening Update, January 26th.

  1. Happy Australia Day to all, AV I see all the rain we were receiving has gone this afternoon from the daily report. Any idea when we will again see a decent rain or even anything. It was supposed to be hopeful for the Australia Day weekend and January was supposed to be average. Hopefully February will look promising . 🇦🇺

    1. Yes Carolyn, just need some luck, will se where this moisture heads in the next day or two. This weeks rain didn’t get the upper trough needed, hence the light rain instead of heavy rain.

  2. Longreach. Dare we hope….how many times can we cross our fingers!
    Thanks for your reports which we eagerly await!!

    1. Jo you might be luckier than the Blackall Area. It still seems to be staying too far North. I have callouses on my knees from praying – haha.

      1. We both seem to be always in the grey, no rain, area which is so frustrating and disappointing….we can do nothing but still hope!

        1. Good news, the EC ensemble is much wetter and takes the rain down through Central QLD. Hopefully a sign it may come back on tomorrow.

  3. Hi Av,

    When do you expect this monsoon will get down to the Maranoa region?? How much rain do you anticipate for cairns for the next 7 days?

    1. Hi Nathan, it may continue to stay North of there in the short term, the ridge may block its path this time, and it may take another cyclone to develop in the gulf before it comes South. The best chance will be that this system comes further South than expected.

  4. Hi Anthony, from reading your forecast for tonight am I correct in saying there will be no substantial rain for CW NSW in the short term from all the activity up North? Thanks, Amanda

    1. Hi Amanda, thundery showers will continue, but no widespread heavy rain if this moisture doesn’t head South. Will know more by tomorrow night, will see where the low is placed then.

    1. Hi Allan, at this stage I think it will all stay inland, it is working its way South though, will keep an eye on it next 24 hours.

  5. Well we did have a cyclone and a strong tropical low develop both sides of AUS tropics. That is always step 1 for AUS rain. THe QLD system is still hugely significant, and potentially holds many aces up its sleeve, …could even send the first pulse down into the Menindee?

    Way down here, have had two storms in 36 hrs (total 7.75mm). I feel that the climate will deliver more rain over SE Aus over the next 4 weeks, …..just seems to feel right. Rain birds squealing away while I was working up at golf club this arvo.

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