Hamilton Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued July 19th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and remaining warm across the inland parts of the country, with weather conditions continuing much colder across the Southern regions of the country, with widespread frost across much of the country. The weather pattern continues to slowly develop, however currently we are dominated by WA systems that are sliding South. Showers continue in SE QLD and NE NSW, and clears in the coming 24 hours. A sequence of stronger fronts begin to develop in WA today, and then extend East across Southern Australia mid to late week, with increasing rainfall. Fronts will continue to become the dominant feature for the remainder of July with inland drying out, as colder air comes up into Southern Australia. It will cool off in the North and dry out, before moisture begins to reload later in July, and another large scale rain event may take place in the Eastern side of QLD late month, whilst fronts continue to bring rain into Southern states.

Week 1,     July 19th – July 26th.

Colder with a winter like pattern strengthening.

A front pushes across Friday night with increasing showers.

Showers will be more widespread across all of Victoria.

A stronger system spreads rain across Southern Vic later in week 1.

Rainfall :  15 – 25 mm

Forecast Confidence :  High

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Week 2,      July 27th – August 3rd.

And increasing upper pattern begins to develop.

Showers will increase across the state, from the West.

Rain will move through more regularly across the state.

Later in week 2, a stronger front will develop to the West.

Rainfall :  8 – 15 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium

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Week 3,     August 4th – August 11th.

Rain begins to develop in Western Australia, and spread East.

A big push of moisture will move in from the Indian Ocean.

A more broad frontal pattern will begin to emerge from the West.

Thundery rain begins to move into WA and spread across Australia.

Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     August 12th – August 19th.

Inland rainfall weather system will again start to develop.

Rainfall will increase across the country in response to increasing moisture.

We should see a more active and dynamic pattern.

Rainfall will begin to become heavier across Southern and Eastern states.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now in a developing weak La Niña, with extremely warm waters near Australia. The atmosphere is now neutral, as the climate begins to set up our weather patterns for late winter and Spring. At this stage, the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently negative, and may now strengthen further over the coming weeks. This will enhance rainfall over the coming months, as any La Niña influence will be from October, and at this stage the La Niña will be a week one. Heavy flooding will occur from October, especially in Eastern states, and drier in the West.