Weekly Updated Forecast, issued May 3rd.
Weather Situation :
Generally fine and remaining warm to hot across the inland parts of the country, with weather conditions now much cooler across the Southern regions of the country. Warm and humid conditions are again building across QLD, which has seen the focus of weather system so far this year. Thundery showers across coastal WA brings thundery showers which will clear. A low pressure trough develops over inland NSW this weekend, with widespread thundery showers, mostly across the Northern half of the state. A stronger upper trough will develop next week across Southern regions, as moisture brings heavy rain into the Top End, with heavy falls across the far North coast of the NT, and also far North QLD. The frontal pattern remains suppressed for the short term, an increase across the South is likely in late May.
Week 1, May 3rd – May 10th.
Warm inland and cooler near the coast and in the South.
An upper level low develops on Friday over NW NSW.
Thundery rain develops in response, mostly across the Northern half of NSW.
A surface low on the weekend brings heavier falls into coastal regions, and Central NSW.
Rainfall : 6 – 12 mm
Forecast Confidence : High
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Week 2, May 11th – May 18th.
Rain clears East and it becomes fine.
Warm and humid, and another trough develops.
Again this will be inland and will bring thundery rain across the state.
The bulk of the rainfall will again focus over the Central and Eastern districts.
Rainfall : 10 – 15 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Week 3, May 19th – May 26th.
Rain begins to clear Northern regions, as drier air moves in.
It will become drier inland across Central and Eastern areas.
A more broad frontal pattern will begin to emerge from the West.
Thundery rain begins to move into WA and spread across Australia.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Week 4, May 27th – June 3rd.
Stronger fronts will now develop in the West.
Rainfall will begin to develop across the Southern states.
We should see a more active and dynamic pattern.
Rainfall will begin to become heavier across Southern states.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium.
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Notes : The climate system is now in a developing La Niña, with extremely warm waters near Australia. The atmosphere is now neutral, as the climate begins to set up our weather patterns for winter and Spring. At this stage, a La Niña is all but certain, and may end up being a strong event, however the Indian Ocean Dipole is looking more neutral at this early stage, which means drier weather in early winter is likely, however I do expect this will tend Negative later in Winter and Spring, and this will enhance flooding for the Spring and summer, in conjunction with increasing rainfall from the La Niña influence. Either way, Spring floods and record rainfall are still highly likely.