Mount Moriac Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued September 22nd.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and remaining warm to hot across the Northern inland parts of the country, particularly in the Northern Territory and Northern WA, and much colder in the South. Things are continuing to be very active in Southern and Eastern Australia. Another strong front will form an upper trough across Southern states, and move East early next week. Widespread heavy rainfall will then develop across Eastern SA, much of Victoria, and then right across Southern and Central NSW. Heaviest rainfall will be across Victoria, with thunderstorms likely to be heavy. Further systems develop next week and more rainfall will move into the Southern parts of SA, and move East again into Victoria and NSW, with more showers moving across Southern districts of WA. Again this system will move East and reinforce the wetter weather across Southern states.

Week 1,     September 22nd – September 29th.

Strong weather systems continue to develop.

A strong upper low moves North and away from Victoria.

On Tuesday, another upper low develops across the state.

Cold wet and windy weather returns to Southern and mountain districts.

Rainfall :  10 – 20 mm

Forecast Confidence :  High


Week 2,      September 30th – October 6th.

Further low pressure troughs develop.

Another trough will develop early in week 2.

This will be a similar system to week 1, maybe a bit further North.

Further widespread rain continues across parts of Victoria.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm.

Forecast Confidence :   Medium


Week 3,     October 7th – October 14th.

We may possibly see some action inland, with stronger upper troughs to develop.

The focus of any inland rain will be in Eastern states, and possibly Central Australia as well.

Stronger fronts continue across the South, and get up higher into NSW and QLD.

The Southern parts of WA will now become drier and warmer from here on.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium


Week 4,     October 15th  – October 22nd.

Warmer weather starts to develop across inland Northern WA.

This will start to filter South into Eastern states, mostly SA.

It become wetter across the East with heavier falls too come.

More active and colder weather will then move into Southern Australia.

Rainfall :  10 – 20 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.


Notes : The climate system is now a weak Negative IOD, and a weak La Nina, and both are having no impact on Australia weather. All cropping areas of Australia, and the East coast of the country, will see extreme flooding this Spring, with record rainfall likely in some areas. On the contrary, WA and SA, and all inland areas West of NSW and QLD, will remain to the drier side. Flooding is likely over Spring in NSW and QLD, and also parts of Victoria. Daytime temperatures will be average, night time temps maybe elevated due to increasing cloud cover, and early Spring heat is very likely to develop in most states, aside from Southern Victoria.