Mount Moriac Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued March 5th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and extremely hot weather across the country, hot and dry conditions inland continuing. Much cooler is Southern areas, with an established Southerly flow. Very little changes to the stationary pattern, moisture is producing rain across Northern and Southern Western Australia, and this week we have a seen huge area of heated air place itself over Australia, keeping much of the country dry and hot. The coastal areas in NSW and QLD remain in a cooler South Easterly regime, with showers continuing near the coast, with little change expected to this pattern in the weeks ahead. A weak trough maintains thundery showers down the East coast, and perhaps thundery showers feed intoSouthern QLD and Northern NSW later next week. Not much else is happening, and it will be a fortnight or so before anything develops for Southern states.

Week 1,     March 5th – March 12th

Much cooler conditions in Victoria, with a fresh Southerly flow.

Isolated showers over the East coast, but little rain around.

Not much else happening next week, and remaining cool until later in the week.

Humidity does remain high, but it will remain fine.

Rainfall :  1 – 2 mm

Forecast Confidence :   High


Week 2,      March 13th – March 20th

Remaining fine and warming slightly, with cooler conditions near the coast.

Humidity begins to increase during week 2.

The flow will turn more North Westerly later in the period.

Some isolated thundery showers are likely to develop later in week 2.

Rainfall :  1 – 4 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium 


Week 3,     March 21st – March 28th

At this point, tropical activity remain suppressed.

Moisture will continuing to trigger thundery rain in the North.

However, inland areas will remain rather dry.

We also may see an increase in activity in Eastern QLD.

Rainfall :  3 – 6 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium


Week 4,     March 29th – April 4th

Widespread activity continues in Northern Tropical areas.

We will see active and thundery weather develop, but remaining on the dry side inland.

Cyclones will be developing and increasing from here, especially in QLD.

It will continue hot and unstable with very active weather in coastal districts in the North.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.


Notes : The climate system is now shifting again, cooler air is now developing in the Southern part of the country, and we now see much less humidity, this is going to create much drier conditions moving forward form here. The climate is now setting up for a much drier period, and we now are into a general dry pattern, and now the only focus of rainfall is likely to be across inland WA, coastal Eastern areas of NSW and QLD, and up North. The La Nina is done and is having zero impact, however cyclones remain a risk until the end of April, and we will now begin to head into another drought. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy.