Mount Moriac Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued December 2nd.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and warm to hot daytime weather across much of the inland parts of the country, and some humidity remains as well. This next period of weather is still very wet in Eastern Australia. Warm humid air produces widespread thundery rain, starting in Eastern SA, extending down into Victoria, and then again becoming widespread across much of NSW and Eastern QLD. This will clear on the weekend and it becomes mostly fine, with cooler and drier air moving over Australia. A strong upper trough then develops in the Bight at the end of week 1, and moves East into Southern Sa and Victoria, and brings rain into this region, and then moves across Victoria and Southern NSW.

Week 1,     December 2nd – December 9th.

A weak front moves through Victoria.

Heavy rainfall over Eastern Victoria will clear.

Remaining mild to warm, ahead of a change at the end of week 1.

Thundery rain develops over Central and Eastern Victoria, with Western areas missing out.

Rainfall :   15 – 25 mm, possible heavier falls.

Forecast Confidence :   High

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Week 2,      December 10th – December 7th.

Returning to fine weather across Victoria.

Becoming warm to hot again ahead of an approaching trough.

Widespread thundery showers develop in the West and spread East.

This event may be more widespread across more of the state.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium

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Week 3,     December 18th – December 25th.

Widespread heavy falls will become established over QLD and NSW.

Tropical moisture comes South and it becomes very active.

More humid air returns and big rain event across Eastern Australia will develop.

Storms are likely to become widespread with unstable weather dominating.

Rainfall :  8 – 15 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     December 26th – January 2nd.

Cyclones and floods up int he tropics will start to develop.

It will remain dry and hot across the South for much of the summer.

Any rain events or thunderstorms that do develop in the South will be very heavy.

It will still remain on the wet side for all Eastern Australia, especially the tropics.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now in a weak La Ninawarmer weather is now well established, and we see a brief period of much cooler weather across much of the country. The weather pattern remain very active until the New Year, at which point it will become much warmer and much drier over summer. That will lead us into a dry autumn, although storms and tropical systems will maintain heavy weather in Northern Australia. Longer term, autumn is likely to be drier and warmer, with another late season break likely in May. It then becomes much colder throughout winter and the winter months will become brutally cold, with a wet winter for Southern Australia and dry inland.