Mount Moriac Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued November 24th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and warm to hot weather across the country, very hot and dry conditions continue in most Northern areas, and this warmth is now spreading South more regularly. Humidity is building, moisture is starting to move South. High based Thundery showers, with little rainfall will be common this week, as weak troughs pass across Southern Australia. Stronger moisture will comes South on the weekend through WA and SA, and a thundery system will develop in Southern SA and Victoria, as well widespread thundery showers inland.  This will then push across Southern and Eastern NSW, and increase thundery rain there also. A more substantial rain event will begin to develop in the second week, about 10 days from today. For now, QLD remains drier and will begin to see thundery showers after next weekend, at the end of week 1. Wa remains mostly dry for now, it too may see an increase next week in thundery showers.

Week 1,     November 24th – December 1st.

Much warmer conditions in Victoria in week 1.

It will become unsettled, with high level thundery showers passing through.

A stronger system develops next Tuesday as a trough moves across Victoria.

This system will produce only moderate falls and a stronger one follows in week 2.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium / High

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Week 2,      December 2nd – December 9th.

Hot and humid to start week 2, and starting off fine.

Activity is building inland and another rain event will develop.

It will be hot and humid, ahead of more thundery showers.

Much heavier thundery rain moves into Victoria from the West very late in week 2.

Rainfall :   10 – 20 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium 

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Week 3,     December 10th – December 17th.

At this point, we will see things start to become very unstable.

Moisture will be building across Australia, and we will certainly widespread rains inland.

It is also possible at this point that flooding rains develop in NSW, QLD, and Victoria.

We are also likely to see a major cold snap sometime around this period, with a major event in the South.

Rainfall :  10 – 20 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     December 18th – December 25th.

Widespread activity continues to develop inland.

We will see active and thundery weather develop across Australia.

We will see significant warmth spread South, and severe weather becomes more likely.

This should make the climate unstable and it will again warm in Southern areas, with low pressure anchored over the South and East.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now shifting, warmer air is now developing in the lower and mid levels, and we now see some humidity, this is going to create unstable conditions across Australia and it will be very warm to hot inland. The climate is now setting up for an active period, and we now are into a general thundery pattern, and now the serious heat may bring flooding rains in the coming weeks during November and December, and the serious risk of cyclones to Northern Australia. And then a very hot and brutal summer will develop irrespective of what the climate sets up like, especially early next year. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy. At this stage cold snaps cannot be ruled out and I favour one in later in November for Southern Australia, and a major event.