Mount Moriac Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued September 22nd.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and remaining very warm to hot across the inland parts of the country, with much hotter conditions now evident over Southern and Eastern states. Hotter temperatures are now extending throughout, and over the coming fortnight we are going to see a dramatic temperature increase inland, with only Eastern coastal regions likely to stay on the warm side rather hot. Next week, a weak trough passes through Victoria and showers will develop in Southern Victoria, but this will be weak and the heat will return quickly after a few days. A weak trough will  bring coastal showers into Southern WA, and then the following week we see an increase in the heat over the inland, and another system closer to GF is likely across Southern regions. 

Week 1,     September 22nd– September 29th.

Much cooler weather this week as a front passes through.

Only a few showers in the South, and remaining cool.

Further warm weather returns on the weekend, hotter in the NW.

Showers develop in the South later in week 1, and cooling off again.

Rainfall :   3 – 8 mm.

Forecast Confidence :  High

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Week 2,      September 30th – October 6th.

Remaining mostly fine, and getting hotter.

Inland areas will see hot weather establish.

A stronger upper trough will develop closer to GF day.

Scattered showers and cooler weather moves in later in week 2.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm.

Forecast Confidence :   Medium

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Week 3,     October 7th – October 14th.

Moisture and hotter temps become established.

In the South, further weak fronts will continue to push across.

Inland, conditions begin to become more unstable.

We will see thundery showers develop across the interior.

Rainfall :  2 – 6 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     October 15th – October 22nd.

We may see the cold air push up higher into Southern Australia.

It will be unstable in Northern Australia, with very hot weather.

In the South, colder weather returns after a period of warmer weather.

Frosts are likely to be widespread due to very cold conditions, but only periodically.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now in a developing El Niño, and is beginning to strengthen in the Pacific ocean. However, the atmosphere has not connected, and as such this years events are unlikely to be strong, and may even fail to develop. The Indian Ocean Dipole is tending positive, and it too is unlikely to become strong, it may only become a weak event, and may not impact the climate. Closer to the coast, an active frontal pattern will see average rainfall in the coming months. It remains drier inland, we will see some rainfall developing in the next few months, but large and lengthy dry spells continue. Daytime temperatures will be above average, night time temps maybe colder than normal for the short term, as clear skies and fine weather develops.