Mount Moriac Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued May 13th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and warm weather across the country, with dry conditions inland continuing, and much cooler conditions now established in Southern Australia. This next period of weather is very inactive, most of  May is likely to be very quiet, with only smaller systems. Very little changes to the stationary pattern, a weak Southerly flow will maintain cooler and showery conditions in Southern Victoria with only small falls of rain. Showers also maintain in coastal Eastern areas of NSW, Southern QLD and Eastern Victoria. A trough will bring further showers into Southern Victoria today, and maintain the showers into the weekend. Very little else happening, a weak front may push up into Southern WA very late in the outlook period, with little rain away from the coast.

Week 1,     May 13th – May 20th.

Cool this week across Victoria, and remaining showery in the South.

A weak front moves across Victoria today.

Showers will maintain in coastal areas until next week

Remaining dry inland and also quite cool, with no significant events likely.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :   High

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Week 2,      May 21st – May 28th

Fine and cool, and returning briefly to fine weather.

Another weak front develops in the Bight during week 2.

Showers develop in the South, again this will be weak.

Any activity will be across Southern and mountain districts only.

Rainfall :  3 – 8 mm

Forecast Confidence :   High

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Week 3,     May 29th – June 4th

At this point, tropical activity remain suppressed.

Moisture will now move away from Australia.

Most of the country, especially inland areas, will remain rather dry.

Conditions will be colder, especially inland with early frosts common.

Rainfall :  3 – 6 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     June 5th – June 12th.

Much cooler conditions begin to spread across the country.

It will begin to go drier at this point, with moisture suppressed in the tropics.

The autumn break may be much later than usual, and it will remain mostly dry.

It will continue drier in Western Australia, with a much later break.

Rainfall :  8 – 15 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now shifting again, cooler air is now developing in the Southern part of the country, and we now see much less humidity, this is going to create much drier conditions moving forward from here. The climate is now setting up for a much drier period, and we now are into a general dry pattern, and now the only focus of rainfall is likely to be across coastal regions. The focus is now the Indian Ocean, a Positive IOD is currently underway, this will limit rainfall here in Australia during Winter and Spring, we will now begin to head into another drought, with a moderate to strong positive IOD likely. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy.