Mullaley Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued March 14th.

Weather Situation :

Currently, conditions are becoming more humid and unstable, as tropical moisture starts to close in from the North. The Madden Julian Oscillation is in Phase 4 and stationary, and the Indian Ocean has warmed up rapidly in the last fortnight. This week moisture moves down into QLD and NSW from the North East, and thundery rain develops in coastal areas on Wednesday, and slowly spreads inland by the weekend, with the possibility of some widespread rain through Southern inland QLD, and Northern and Central inland NSW. A low pressure system may develop off the NSW coast this coming weekend, and produce heavy rainfall in much of coastal NSW, extending down into Victoria. A tropical cyclone will also develop in Northern waters near WA, and extend rain down into WA, and another low may develop in the Northern waters off the QLD coast, or in the Gulf of Carpentaria. This will bring further heavy rain into already flooded parts of QLD.

Week 1,     March 14th –  March 21st.

Cooler conditions have developed in NSW in the South, still hot in the North.

Fine conditions to start week 1, with temps starting to warm late week.

A surface trough develops on Thursday on the coast, and thundery showers develop in the NE.

Widespread rain will then push inland, and we will see some heavy rain spread down the Eastern side of the ranges, and into the NW slopes.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium / High 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Week 2,      March 22nd – March 29th.

Thundery rain clear East early in week 2.

Humidity remains high, thundery showers in the North East will develop again

A moisture infeed and upper trough will move into NSW later in week 2

Thundery showers will again develop and start to increase to heavier rain later in the period.

Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm.

Forecast Confidence :   Medium 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Week 3,     March 30th – April 5th.

The MJO moves into Phase 3 and 4, and things get active.

Monsoonal moisture will still be very high, and the Indian Ocean will become active.

We may see the development of the Long Wave trough to the SW of Perth

This will mean it will start to get cooler and potentially wetter for Southern Australia.

Rainfall : 15 – 30 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Week 4,     April 6th – April 13th.

Thundery rain will become widespread.

Monsoonal moisture will push inland, and big rains rre likely inland.

Rain should become more widespread in Eastern Australia.

Cyclones or tropical lows will start to develop to the West of Australia.

Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

———————————————————————————————————————————–

Notes : The climate system is now shifting, warm waters in the Indian Ocean mean we are going to see a big increase in rainfall.  The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy. The general trend is for rain to drastically start increasing in week 2, with upper troughs also becoming active during March and April. This will mean much wetter conditions, and cooler temps as well, especially in Southern areas. Cyclones are again likely to start developing later in the near future, this time from the West, but also possible from the East, where QLD should continue to see very good summer rainfall continue. The outlook is now for a wetter period until the end of April.