Weekly Updated Forecast, issued April 26th.
Weather Situation :
Generally fine and remaining warm to hot across the inland parts of the country, with weather conditions now beginning to shift to a cooler regime across the Southern regions of the country. Warm and humid conditions are again building across QLD, which has seen the focus of weather system so far this year. A low pressure trough develops over South East QLD this weekend, with widespread thundery showers, heavy near the coast. Thundery showers also continue across NSW in the coming days, mostly across NE NSW, and weak fronts continue to push across Western Tasmania, and Southern Victoria, where showers are continuing. Inland the weather remains dry, with higher pressure still persisting across Western Australia and to the immediate regions West of WA. A stronger upper trough will develop next week across Southern regions, coastal rainfall returns across WA, and coastal SA, and widespread showers will develop across Victoria, and the high country of NSW. This will push colder air up into NSW and QLD, where it becomes temporarily fine. We will see our first moisture infeed into WA after next weekend, this may bring rain down into Southern WA districts for the beginning of May.
Week 1, April 26th – May 3rd.
Mostly fine and cooler across most of NSW.
Morning frosts in inland regions with clear skies.
Showers also continue on the coastal fringe.
These showers will continue in the SE flow.
Rainfall : 0 – 4 mm
Forecast Confidence : High
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Week 2, May 4th – May 11th.
Remaining dry for the most part, and warm.
Thundery showers begin to spread South.
We will see thundery showers increase in coastal regions.
Heavy falls along the coast as another low pressure system develops.
Rainfall : 2 – 6 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Week 3, May 12th – May 19th.
Rain begins to clear Northern regions, as drier air moves in.
It will become drier inland across Central and Eastern areas.
A more broad frontal pattern will begin to emerge from the West.
Thundery rain begins to move into WA and spread across Australia.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Week 4, May 20th – May 27th.
Stronger fronts will now develop in the West.
Rainfall will begin to develop across the Southern states.
We should see a more active and dynamic pattern.
Rainfall will begin to become heavier across Southern states.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium.
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Notes : The climate system is now in a developing La Niña, with extremely warm waters near Australia. The atmosphere is now neutral, as the climate begins to set up our weather patterns for winter and Spring. At this stage, a La Niña is all but certain, and may end up being a strong event, however the Indian Ocean Dipole is looking more neutral at this early stage, which means drier weather in early winter is likely, however I do expect this will tend Negative later in Winter and Spring, and this will enhance flooding for the Spring and summer, in conjunction with increasing rainfall from the La Niña influence. Either way, Spring floods and record rainfall are still highly likely.