Mullaley Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued June 13th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and remaining warm across the inland parts of the country, with weather conditions now much cooler across the Southern regions of the country. The weather pattern is now slowly developing, however currently we are dominated by WA systems that are sliding South. Showers develop across Southern SA on Thursday with a weakening frontal system, this will push into the Riverland and Mallee and then weaken out. We will see another push into Central WA next Tuesday, and this will focus the rainfall in the same channel across the Gascoyne and then SE from there. This system will then move into the Bight, where it will then strengthen and become a stronger rainfall system for SA, Victoria and Tasmania, and bring a much better and widespread rainfall event. This will also extend well into Southern NSW and bring plenty of rainfall across the Southern half of the state. Drier elsewhere inland, and also across Southern WA, before stronger systems develop later in June.

Week 1,     June 13th – June 20th.

A much colder and more settled week ahead for NSW..

Morning frosts and fine weather continue in week 1.

Some showers may develop on the weekend in the far South West.

It will be mostly fine throughout with a system developing very late in week 1.

Rainfall :  0 – 2 mm

Forecast Confidence :  High

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Week 2,      June 21st – June 28th.

And increasing upper pattern begins to develop.

Showers will increase across the Southern regions.

Rainfall will become widespread in all of the Southern Districts.

We may also see some showers in coastal regions develop also.

Rainfall :  1 – 4 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium

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Week 3,     June 29th – July 5th.

Rain begins to develop in Western Australia, and spread East.

A big push of moisture will move in from the Indian Ocean.

A more broad frontal pattern will begin to emerge from the West.

Thundery rain begins to move into WA and spread across Australia.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     July 6th – July 13th.

Stronger fronts will now develop in the West.

Rainfall will begin to develop inland as well.

We should see a more active and dynamic pattern.

Rainfall will begin to become heavier across Southern and Eastern states.

Rainfall :  10 – 20 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now in a developing La Niña, with extremely warm waters near Australia. The atmosphere is now neutral, as the climate begins to set up our weather patterns for winter and Spring. At this stage, a La Niña is all but certain, and may end up being a strong event, however the Indian Ocean Dipole is looking more neutral at this early stage, which means drier weather in early winter is likely, however I do expect this will tend Negative later in Winter and Spring, and this will enhance flooding for the Spring and summer, in conjunction with increasing rainfall from the La Niña influence. Either way, Spring floods and record rainfall are still highly likely across much of Eastern Australia.