Mullaley Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued January 16th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and extremely hot weather across the country, very hot and dry conditions inland continuing. Very little changes to the stationary pattern, moisture is producing rain across Northern and Eastern Australia, and in Northern NSW. The remainder of the country is quite inactive and dry. Some thundery showers will linger across the entire Northern QLD and the NT, with some heavy coastal rainfall. The only system of note is a trough over Eastern NSW, thundery showers will develop there next week and extend into QLD. Some thundery showers also in Southern WA next week, but again theses will be patchy and not widespread. The remainder of the country is dry however, and the moisture and thundery rain will remain in the far North.

Week 1,     January 16th – January 23rd

Warm conditions in NSW, cooler than last week in the South

Not much to speak of, quite inactive in week 1 and remaining mostly dry.

Later in week 1, thundery showers will develop in the Northern Rivers.

It will become hot and a bit more humid around this time.

Rainfall :  1 – 4 mm

Forecast Confidence :   High

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Week 2,      January 24th – January 31st

Hot with thundery showers increasing across the East.

Thundery showers will persist in most Northern and Eastern districts.

The inland will remain dry however, with hot conditions persisting.

We should then see the possibility of a surface trough and heavy falls in the coastal areas of Northern Rivers.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium 

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Week 3,     February 1st – February 8th

At this point, we will see a cyclone develop in WA off the NW coast.

Moisture will continuing bring rains up North.

The inland remains dry, however cyclones may bring the small chance of some rain.

We also may see a large system develop across Northern Australia with a second cyclone likely.

Rainfall :  2 – 6 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     February 9th – February 16th.

Widespread activity continues in Northern Tropical areas.

We will see active and thundery weather develop, but remaining on the dry side inland.

Cyclones will be developing and increasing from here, especially in QLD.

It will continue hot and unstable with very active weather in coastal districts in the North.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now shifting, warmer air is now developing in the lower and mid levels, and we now see some humidity, this is going to create unstable conditions across Australia and it will be very hot inland. The climate is now setting up for a much drier period, and we now are into a general dry pattern, and now the serious heat may bring flooding rains in the coming weeks during January in North East NSW, and the serious risk of cyclones to Northern Australia. The La Nina is done and is having zero impact, and we will now begin to head into another drought. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy.