Weekly Updated Forecast, issued January 16th.
Weather Situation :
Currently, we have very hot and humid conditions over the country, with widespread heavy rainfall in the South East of the country. This will clear, and very hot conditions will return this week, with thundery showers then developing WA, and also in NSW mid week, as some moisture moves across the country. A major cyclone will also develop in the Indian Ocean this week, with the MJO moving into Phase 3 and 4. This is going to change the weather pattern, and set up lower pressures which will in turn strengthen trade winds. Moisture will start to filter in from the West, and next weekend an upper level trough will develop in Southern areas. Thundery showers will then develop in Victoria, and then clear East. Humid and hot weather will continue after next weekend and we may see a major event develop as some of this heavy moisture starts to push South.
Week 1, January 16th – January 23rd.
Fine and very hot weather over NSW continues this week
Widespread thundery showers will also develop over much of the state.
Thundery showers will increase late weekend and early next week.
The majority of the rain will be in the Central parts of NSW.
Rainfall : 2 – 6 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium / High
Week 2, January 24th – January 31st.
Hot conditions will continue inland, it will be milder near the coast.
It will become more humid during week 2, as moisture begins increasing.
Thundery showers will develop generally later in week 2 right across the country.
Widespread thundery showers will then spread into NSW from the NW
Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm.
Forecast Confidence : Medium
Week 3, February 1st – February 8th.
The Monsoon trough develops across the North.
Cyclones will develop somewhere North of Australia, possibly over Darwin.
Widespread thundery monsoonal rain will develop across the North, as the monsoon trough become established
We should start to see moisture move down into SA, and some rain develop there.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
Week 4, February 9th – February 16th.
At this point in time, the thundery weather will continue.
The heaviest rains will have passed, but thundery sets ups are likely.
Significant storms will be developing right across the country
It will remain very active, and the monsoon trough may try to re-establish and head South.
Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium.
Notes : Things are now evolving so that La Nina atmospheric conditions are now here, with widespread activity likely in the coming months. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy. The general trend is for rain to increase dramatically with heavy falls to develop, except in WA where the Western side will remain dry. Moisture is now beginning to move South much heavier and bigger systems and cut off are much more likely in the weeks ahead. We should now see generally thundery rain events become stronger, and will start to push inland during late January, and peak later in February.