Weekly Updated Forecast, issued June 29th.
Weather Situation :
Generally fine and remaining warm across the inland parts of the country, with weather conditions now much cooler across the Southern regions of the country. The weather pattern continues to slowly develop, however currently we are dominated by WA systems that are sliding South. Showers develop across the coast of SA on Saturday, and spread across Southern Victoria on the weekend, and also across Western and Northern Tasmania, with much wetter weather developing. Showers across the Se of NSW will extend into Northern NSW, where a trough develops late weekend and into Monday, with good rainfall for NE NSW districts, as well as Southern QLD districts, more patchy in the Channel Country. Next week the pattern becomes more dynamic, stronger low pressure develops as cold air begins to move North, and an inland system will develop in week 2. At this stage, it will develop over inland QLD and NSW, where further flooding rains may develop in coastal NSW. We will also see further rainfall to develop across Southern WA, and spread across the Southern Ag regions.
Week 1, June 29th – July 5th.
Showers in coastal NSW continue, especially South.
Another trough develops in the SE on Sunday.
Showers will spread across the ranges.
A low develops and brings heavy falls to much of coastal NSW.
Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm
Forecast Confidence : High
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Week 2, July 6th – July 13th.
Further showers develop across NSW as moisture increases.
A strong system is likely during week 2 with an inland upper low.
Rain will become widespread across most of Northern and Central NSW.
This will ease and begin to clear later in week 2.
Rainfall : 6 – 12 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Week 3, July 14th – July 21st.
Rain begins to develop in Western Australia, and spread East.
A big push of moisture will move in from the Indian Ocean.
A more broad frontal pattern will begin to emerge from the West.
Thundery rain begins to move into WA and spread across Australia.
Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Week 4, July 22nd – July 29th.
Inland rainfall weather system will again start to develop.
Rainfall will increase across the country in response to increasing moisture.
We should see a more active and dynamic pattern.
Rainfall will begin to become heavier across Southern and Eastern states.
Rainfall : 5 – 10 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium.
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Notes : The climate system is now in a developing La Niña, with extremely warm waters near Australia. The atmosphere is now neutral, as the climate begins to set up our weather patterns for winter and Spring. At this stage, a La Niña is all but certain, and may end up being a strong event, and the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, but it is now tending negative, which means wetter weather in the months ahead is now looking more favourable. As both the IOD and La Niña both begin to strengthen, rainfall will also increase from August and then heavy flooding will develop in Spring and Summer for most areas aside from WA.