Mullaley Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued May 6th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and warm weather across the country, with dry conditions inland continuing, and much cooler conditions now established in Southern Australia. This next period of weather is very inactive, most of  May is likely to be very quiet, with only smaller systems. Very little changes to the stationary pattern, a weak Southerly flow will maintain cooler and showery conditions in Southern Victoria with only small falls of rain. A trough will bring further rain into Southern WA later in the outlook period, with good falls in coastal regions, and light falls inland.  Another follow up also comes through Southern Victoria. Aside from this, there is very little happening and inland areas will remain mostly dry, up until later in June or July.

Week 1,     May 6th – May 13th.

Cool this week across NSW, and showers clearing in the East.

Remaining dry and cooler inland, with stable weather.

Showers develop in the South East on the weekend, with no rain inland.

Remaining dry inland and also quite cool, with no significant events likely.

Rainfall :  1 – 4 mm

Forecast Confidence :   High

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Week 2,      May 14th – May 21st

Fine and cool, and returning to fine weather.

Showers again develop on the coast, with a moist South East flow.

Nothing inland, it will remain dry there.

Any activity will be across coastal districts and mostly in the South.

Rainfall :  1 – 4 mm

Forecast Confidence :   High

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Week 3,     May 22nd – May 29th

At this point, tropical activity remain suppressed.

Moisture will now move away from Australia.

Most of the country, especially inland areas, will remain rather dry.

Conditions will be colder, especially inland with early frosts common.

Rainfall :  1 – 4 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     May 30th – June 6th.

Much cooler conditions begin to spread across the country.

It will begin to go drier at this point, with moisture suppressed in the tropics.

The autumn break may be much later than usual, and it will remain mostly dry.

It will continue drier in Western Australia, with a much later break.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now shifting again, cooler air is now developing in the Southern part of the country, and we now see much less humidity, this is going to create much drier conditions moving forward from here. The climate is now setting up for a much drier period, and we now are into a general dry pattern, and now the only focus of rainfall is likely to be across coastal regions. The focus is now the Indian Ocean, a Positive IOD is currently underway, this will limit rainfall here in Australia during Winter and Spring, we will now begin to head into another drought, with a moderate to strong positive IOD likely. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy.