Mullaley Weekly Forecast

Weekly Updated Forecast, issued October 28th.

Weather Situation :

Generally fine and warm weather across the country, hot and dry conditions continue in most Northern areas, however much colder weather in Southern Australia as activity continues to build. Rain continues in NSW, mostly in the Eastern and Southern areas, and a stronger upper trough develop in Southern SA on Thursday night. Thundery showers also will develop in Southern SA, mostly through Adelaide and the Murraylands, and then pushing into the Riverland and across Northern Victoria and Southern NSW. Rain will then spread across into Eastern Victoria and NSW, with good falls again in Central, Southern and Eastern NSW. This system is unlikely to reach Northern areas of NSW. Thundery showers also develop in Southern WA, as a trough pushes up early next week. Significant rain will possibly develop across much of the Southern Ag areas of WA. It will then briefly clear before more tropical moisture spreads down into SA with another rain event.

Week 1,     October 28th – November 3rd.

Warm conditions in Northern NSW, wet and cooler elsewhere.

Showers continue in Eastern and Southern districts.

A strong upper trough will develop in Southern NSW on Friday.

Thundery showers will again become widespread across these same areas.

Rainfall :  5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium / High

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Week 2,      November 4th – November 11th.

Conditions will begin fine in week 2, before further instability develops.

Cooling down with thundery showers in the middle of the period.

Showers will again focus across much of NSW.

Humidity will increase and then further big falls will follow.

Rainfall :   5 – 10 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Medium 

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Week 3,     November 12th – November 19th.

At this point, we will see things start to become very unstable.

Moisture will be building across Australia, and we will certainly see massive rains inland.

It is also possible at this point that flooding rains develop in NSW and QLD, and maybe even Victoria.

We are also likely to see a major cold snap sometime around this period, and the possibility of a major event.

Rainfall :  15 – 25 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium

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Week 4,     November 20th – November 27th.

Widespread activity continues to develop inland.

We will see active and thundery weather develop across Australia.

We will see significant warmth spread South, and severe weather becomes more likely.

This should make the climate unstable and a big cold snap will develop either week 3 or 4 of the outlooks.

Rainfall : 25 – 50 mm

Forecast Confidence :  Medium.

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Notes : The climate system is now shifting, warmer air is now developing in the lower and mid levels, and we now see some humidity, this is going to create unstable conditions across Australia and it will be very warm to hot inland. The climate is now setting up for an active period, and we now are into a general thundery pattern, and by November the serious heat may bring flooding rains and the serious risk of cyclones to Northern Australia. And then a very hot and brutal summer will develop irrespective of what the climate sets up like, especially early next year. The forecasts are obviously targeting the first two weeks, with week 3 and 4 having much less accuracy. At this stage cold snaps cannot be ruled out and I favour one in later in November for Southern Australia, and a major event.