Weekly Update, issued June 24th
Weather Situation :
A very strong cold front with a very cold airmass is producing widespread showers, hail and snow to levels in Victoria and NSW. This will begin to clear into NSW tomorrow and then clear entirely by Sunday. On Sunday night an upper trough will enter WA and spread a band of rain trough the middle of the country. Also on Monday, another upper trough moves through Northern SA and into NSW, bringing showers to these regions. A much stronger system is looking likely late next week on Thursday, as a strong upper low develops in the Bight and moves up towards Adelaide. Widespread showers and very cold conditions again will develop in Sa, and extend into Victoria and NSW next Friday.
Week 1, June 25th – July 1st.
Conditions will remain fine for most of QLD this week.
There will be weak onshore flow so isolated showers are likely on the extreme coastal fringe.
Late on Friday, a strong upper trough will move into Southern NSW
At this stage, Southern QLD will see some showers as a weak trough also develops there.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm.
Forecast Confidence : Very High
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Week 2, July 2nd– July 9th
Early in this week, an upper trough will develop over Central Australia.
This will move into QLD in the middle period, and widespread showers will develop late in the week
This will start to work its way down the East coast, and it will become slow moving.
Widespread showers are likely right down the East coast of QLD into NSW.
Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm.
Forecast Confidence : High
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Week 3, July 10th – July 17th
An upper trough will now start to develop over WA and bring widespread rain into country.
This is likely to become the focus for the following two weeks.
Widespread rain will move across the country again from the NW, spreading inland and producing widespread rain.
The heaviest falls are likely in every state except WA, where a ridge should keep most of WA dry, except for the South West and coasts.
Rainfall : 25 – 40 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium / High
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Week 4, July 18th– July 25th
Further low pressure is likely during this period, with the barrage of cold air to continue to pound the Southern areas.
Further rain events are likely as this interacts with further tropical moisture from the NW.
Southern areas will do best during this period as an upper ridge over the interior may temporarily dry things a little.
Rainfall : 20 – 30 mm
Forecast Confidence : Medium
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Notes : Obviously the first two weeks are the targets weeks, what happens with these two weeks will determine the following two weeks downstream of that.
We are moving into a very active period with a lot of things going on, and the weather will change quickly. Hence, I will be updating these pages regularly to give subscribers the best information as it occurs.